Influence of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity on typhoon track forecasts

doi:10.1002/qj.902

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Influence of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity on typhoon track forecasts
	Qin, Xiaohao 1; Mu, Mu 1,2; Qin, XH (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
	2012
发表期刊	QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
ISSN	0035-9009
卷号	138 期号:662 页码:185-197
文章类型	Article
摘要	This study investigates the influence on typhoon track forecasts by the Mesoscale Model5 and 3D-Var system of assimilating additional simulated dropsonde data in sensitive regions identified by Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations (CNOPs) for seven typhoons in the western North Pacific. As a reference, a similar analysis was performed for the sensitive regions identified by Singular Vectors (SVs), using the same model and assimilation system as that in the case of CNOPs. Six of the seven cases show an improvement in typhoon track forecasts, with the degree of improvement being 13%-46% in the CNOPs sensitive regions and 14%-25% in SVs sensitive regions. Furthermore, track forecasts that consider dropsonde data show improved performance not only during the optimization period for these six cases (24-48 h), when CNOPs and SVs sensitivities were calculated, but for longer forecast times of 48-72 h. However, relatively large observation errors result in reduced forecast performance for the remaining typhoon case. These results show that the deployment of dropsondes in sensitive regions identified by CNOPs has an overall positive influence on typhoon track forecasts, suggesting in turn that CNOPs can be utilized as an adaptive method in determining sensitive regions in adaptive observations. Copyright (C) 2011 RoyalMeteorological Society
关键词	Adaptive Observations Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations Singular Vectors Influence Typhoon Track Forecasts
学科领域	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI	10.1002/qj.902
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000299372800014
引用统计	被引频次：48[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/12155
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Qin, XH (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin, Xiaohao,Mu, Mu,Qin, XH . Influence of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity on typhoon track forecasts[J]. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,2012,138(662):185-197.
APA	Qin, Xiaohao,Mu, Mu,&Qin, XH .(2012).Influence of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity on typhoon track forecasts.QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,138(662),185-197.
MLA	Qin, Xiaohao,et al."Influence of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity on typhoon track forecasts".QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 138.662(2012):185-197.

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