Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations

doi:10.1002/qj.2109

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations
	Qin, Xiaohao 1; Duan, Wansuo 1; Mu, Mu 2; Duan, WS
	2013-07-01
发表期刊	QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
ISSN	0035-9009
卷号	139 期号:675 页码:1544-1554
文章类型	Article
摘要	To determine whether profound improvements in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting are achievable by deploying dropwindsondes according to conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) sensitivity, observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) were conducted on 20 TCs that developed over the western North Pacific during 2010 using Mesoscale Model 5 and its 3DVar assimilation system. Of the 20 cases, 13 showed neutral or improved track forecasts of between 0% and 51.2%. Eliminating initial errors within the CNOP pattern, which are related to either the storm directly or the surrounding regimes indirectly, reduced the subsequent track forecast errors. The remaining 7 TCs showed deterioration in the accuracy of the track forecasts over the 48 h forecast period. Accurate forecasts made without adaptive observations, a low sensitivity of forecast errors to initial errors, or major forecast errors associated with regimes other than the TC, can lead to a decline in the accuracy of TC track forecasts.; To determine whether profound improvements in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting are achievable by deploying dropwindsondes according to conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) sensitivity, observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) were conducted on 20 TCs that developed over the western North Pacific during 2010 using Mesoscale Model 5 and its 3DVar assimilation system. Of the 20 cases, 13 showed neutral or improved track forecasts of between 0% and 51.2%. Eliminating initial errors within the CNOP pattern, which are related to either the storm directly or the surrounding regimes indirectly, reduced the subsequent track forecast errors. The remaining 7 TCs showed deterioration in the accuracy of the track forecasts over the 48 h forecast period. Accurate forecasts made without adaptive observations, a low sensitivity of forecast errors to initial errors, or major forecast errors associated with regimes other than the TC, can lead to a decline in the accuracy of TC track forecasts. Following analysis of the potential causes of inaccuracy in the track forecasts, we find that TC cases with profound positive effects on track forecasts often satisfy the following four conditions: (i) an inaccurate initial forecast without additional observation data; (ii) proper sensitivity of the forecast errors to the initial errors; (iii) a large proportion of the forecast errors fall within the verification region; and (iv) the TC system is the dominant regime in the verification region at verification time. Seven TCs satisfied these four conditions, and showed a mean reduction of 28.75% in track forecast errors over periods of 12-48 h. This result suggests that the TC cases satisfying these four conditions often show profound improvements on track forecast by dropwindsondes guided by CNOP sensitivity.
关键词	Profound Track Forecast Improvements Conditions Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observations Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations
学科领域	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI	10.1002/qj.2109
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000324390000011
WOS关键词	NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS ; HURRICANE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE ; EL-NINO EVENTS ; TARGETED OBSERVATIONS ; SINGULAR VECTORS ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; FORECASTS ; WEATHER ; PREDICTION
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
引用统计	被引频次：35[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/16395
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Duan, WS
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qin, Xiaohao,Duan, Wansuo,Mu, Mu,et al. Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations[J]. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,2013,139(675):1544-1554.
APA	Qin, Xiaohao,Duan, Wansuo,Mu, Mu,&Duan, WS.(2013).Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations.QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,139(675),1544-1554.
MLA	Qin, Xiaohao,et al."Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations".QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 139.675(2013):1544-1554.

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