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Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data | |
Spinoni, Jonathan1; Barbosa, Paulo1; Bucchignani, Edoardo2; Cassano, John3,4; Cavazos, Tereza5; Christensen, Jens H.6,7,30; Christensen, Ole B.7; Coppola, Erika8; Evans, Jason9; Geyer, Beate10; Giorgi, Filippo8; Hadjinicolaou, Panos11; Jacob, Daniela12; Katzfey, Jack13; Koenigk, Torben14; Laprise, Rene15; Lennard, Christopher J.16; Kurnaz, M. Levent17,18; Li, Delei19; Llopart, Marta20,21; McCormick, Niall1; Naumann, Gustavo1; Nikulin, Grigory14; Ozturk, Tugba22; Panitz, Hans-Juergen23; da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio24; Rockel, Burkhardt10; Solman, Silvina A.25,26; Syktus, Jozef27; Tangang, Fredolin28; Teichmann, Claas12; Vautard, Robert29; Vogt, Juergen V.1; Winger, Katja15; Zittis, George11; Dosio, Alessandro1 | |
2020-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
卷号 | 33期号:9页码:3635-3661 |
通讯作者 | Spinoni, Jonathan(jonathan.spinoni@ec.europa.eu) |
摘要 | Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas. |
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1 |
收录类别 | SCI |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000568259800013 |
出版者 | AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/168778 |
专题 | 中国科学院海洋研究所 |
通讯作者 | Spinoni, Jonathan |
作者单位 | 1.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy 2.Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Lecce, Italy 3.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 4.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 5.Ctr Invest Cient & Educ Super Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico 6.Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark 7.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark 8.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy 9.Univ New South Wales, Fac Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia 10.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Inst Coastal Res, Hamburg, Germany 11.Cyprus Inst, Energy Environm & Water Res Ctr, Nicosia, Cyprus 12.Climate Serv Ctr Germany, Hamburg, Germany 13.Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org Marine & Atmospher, Aspendale, Vic, Australia 14.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, Norrkoping, Sweden 15.Univ Quebeca Montreal, Dept Sci Terre & Atmosphere, Montreal, PQ, Canada 16.Univ Cape Town, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Cape Town, South Africa 17.Bogazici Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkey 18.Bogazici Univ, Ctr Climate Change & Policy Studies, Istanbul, Turkey 19.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao, Peoples R China 20.Sao Paulo State Univ, Bauru, SP, Brazil 21.Bauru Meteorol Ctr IPMet UNESP, Bauru, SP, Brazil 22.Isik Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkey 23.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Karlsruhe, Germany 24.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Sao Paulo, Brazil 25.Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina 26.Univ Buenos Aires, Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina 27.Univ Queensland, Global Change Inst, Brisbane, Qld, Australia 28.Natl Univ Malaysia UKM, Dept Earth Sci & Environm, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia 29.Natl Ctr Sci Res, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France 30.Norwegian Res Ctr AS NORCE, Bergen, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Spinoni, Jonathan,Barbosa, Paulo,Bucchignani, Edoardo,et al. Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2020,33(9):3635-3661. |
APA | Spinoni, Jonathan.,Barbosa, Paulo.,Bucchignani, Edoardo.,Cassano, John.,Cavazos, Tereza.,...&Dosio, Alessandro.(2020).Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,33(9),3635-3661. |
MLA | Spinoni, Jonathan,et al."Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 33.9(2020):3635-3661. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
Global Meteorologica(5491KB) | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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