Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes

doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes
	Cai, Wenju 1,2,3; Ng, Benjamin 3; Geng, Tao 1,2,4; Jia, Fan 5; Wu, Lixin 1,2,4; Wang, Guojian 1,2,3; Liu, Yu 6; Gan, Bolan 1,2,4; Yang, Kai 7; Santoso, Agus 3,8; Lin, Xiaopei 1,2,4; Li, Ziguang 1,2,4; Liu, Yi 1,2; Yang, Yun 9; Jin, Fei-Fei 10; Collins, Mat 11; McPhaden, Michael J.12
	2023-05-18
发表期刊	NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
页码	12
通讯作者	Cai, Wenju(Wenju.cai@csiro.au) ; Wu, Lixin(Lxwu@ouc.edu.cn)
摘要	El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability increased after 1960, influenced by more frequent strong El Nino and La Nina events. Whether such changes are linked to anthropogenic warming, however, is largely unknown. In this Perspective, we consider anthropogenic impacts on ENSO variability in several commonly used modelling designs, which collectively suggest a greenhouse warming-related effect on post-1960 ENSO SST variability. Specifically, a comparison of simulated ENSO SST variability between 1901-1960 and 1961-2020 indicates that more than three quarters of climate models produce an amplitude increase in post-1960 ENSO SST variability, translating into more frequent strong El Nino and La Nina events. Multiple large ensemble experiments further confirm that the simulated post-1960 ENSO amplitude increase (approximately 10%) is not solely due to internal variability. Moreover, multicentury-long simulations under a constant pre-industrial CO2 level suggest that the observed post-1960 ENSO variability is high, sitting in the highest 2.5 and 10 percentiles for eastern Pacific and central Pacific ENSO, respectively. Improvement in model ENSO physics, identification of consistent future and historical change in additional ENSO characteristics and single-forcing large-ensemble experiments are further needed to ascertain climate change impacts on the ENSO. Although model projections indicate increased El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the future, contemporary impacts of anthropogenic forcing on ENSO variability have been difficult to ascertain. This Perspective discusses these contemporary effects, outlining that an increase in post-1960 ENSO variability is likely related to greenhouse gas forcing.
DOI	10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202203300] ; Strategic Priority Research Programme of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB 40030000] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project[42206209] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) project[42276006] ; China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279] ; NSFC[41490643] ; NSFC[41490640] ; NSFC[U1606402] ; NSFC[41521091] ; CSIRO ; Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program (NESP) ; UK Natural Environment Research Council[NE/S004645/1] ; US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison[4957]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000990445800001
出版者	SPRINGERNATURE
WOS关键词	NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; PACIFIC EL-NINO ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; INTERMODEL UNCERTAINTY ; AMPLITUDE CHANGE ; EASTERN-PACIFIC ; MEAN-STATE ; FREQUENCY ; EVENTS ; OCEAN
引用统计	被引频次：18[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/182997
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Cai, Wenju; Wu, Lixin
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Ocean Univ China, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Ctr Southern Hemisphere Oceans Res CSHOR, Hobart, Tas, Australia 4.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing, Peoples R China 8.Univ New South Wales, Australian Res Council ARC Ctr Excellence Climate, Sydney, NSW, Australia 9.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 10.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, SOEST, Honolulu, HI USA 11.Univ Exeter, Dept Math & Stat, Exeter, England 12.NOAA Pacific Marine Environm Lab, Seattle, WA USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cai, Wenju,Ng, Benjamin,Geng, Tao,et al. Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes[J]. NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,2023:12.
APA	Cai, Wenju.,Ng, Benjamin.,Geng, Tao.,Jia, Fan.,Wu, Lixin.,...&McPhaden, Michael J..(2023).Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes.NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,12.
MLA	Cai, Wenju,et al."Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes".NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2023):12.