Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

doi:10.1029/2024GL110135

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate
	Li, Delei 1,2,3,4; Zscheischler, Jakob 5,6; Chen, Yang7 ; Yin, Baoshu 1,2,3,4,8; Feng, Jianlong 9; Freund, Mandy 10; Qi, Jifeng 1,2,4; Zhu, Yuchao1,2 ; Bevacqua, Emanuele 5
	2024-06-16
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
卷号	51 期号:11 页码:11
通讯作者	Li, Delei(deleili@qdio.ac.cn) ; Bevacqua, Emanuele(emanuele.bevacqua@ufz.de)
摘要	Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) can severely impact natural and socioeconomic systems. However, our understanding of CWPE future changes, drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, by analyzing the event both on oceans and landmasses via state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we reveal a poleward shift of CWPE occurrences by the late 21st century, with notable increases at latitudes exceeding 50 degrees in both hemispheres and decreases in the subtropics around 25 degrees. CWPE intensification occurs across approximately 90% of global landmasses, and is most pronounced under a high-emission scenario. Most changes in CWPE frequency and intensity (about 70% and 80%, respectively) stem from changes in precipitation extremes. We further identify large uncertainties in CWPE changes, which can be understood at the regional level by considering climate model differences in trends of CWPE drivers. These results provide insights into understanding CWPE changes under a warmer climate, aiding robust regional adaptation strategy development. Concurrent wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs), a typical case of compound weather events, can cause flooding and strong winds that can paralyze public transportation, trigger power outages, and destroy houses and shelters. Furthermore, CWPE over the ocean can endanger the shipment of goods and its logistics. Yet, our understanding of the projected changes, underlying drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, analyzing for the first time CWPEs both on global oceans and landmasses allows us to reveal a poleward shift of CWPEs at the global scale in response to climate change. We show that changes in precipitation extremes play a dominant role in determining the future changes in the frequency and intensity of CWPEs. Furthermore, at the regional level, we reveal substantial uncertainties in projections due to differences between the used climate models. We illustrate that these uncertainties are due to model differences in trends of CWPE drivers and argue that they should be addressed explicitly in impact assessments for guiding the development of robust adaptation strategies. An intensification and poleward shift of compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) will occur in a warmer climate Most changes in frequency and intensity of CWPEs stem from changes in precipitation extremes Substantial uncertainties at the regional level in projections of CWPEs are due to structural model differences
DOI	10.1029/2024GL110135
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000] ; National Key Research and Development Project of China[2022YFE0112800] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2022204] ; Taishan Scholars Program[tsqn202211252] ; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) via the Emmy Noether Programme[524780515] ; European Union[101003469] ; Helmholtz Initiative and Networking Fund[VH-NG-1537] ; [42176203]
WOS研究方向	Geology
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001236719700001
出版者	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS关键词	RISK ; CIRCULATION ; EVENTS
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/185967
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Li, Delei; Bevacqua, Emanuele
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Cpd Environm Risks, Leipzig, Germany 6.Tech Univ Dresden, Dresden, Germany 7.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China 8.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Engn Lab Marine Ranching, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao, Peoples R China 9.Tianjin Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Marine & Environm Sci, Tianjin, Peoples R China 10.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
第一作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Delei,Zscheischler, Jakob,Chen, Yang,et al. Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2024,51(11):11.
APA	Li, Delei.,Zscheischler, Jakob.,Chen, Yang.,Yin, Baoshu.,Feng, Jianlong.,...&Bevacqua, Emanuele.(2024).Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(11),11.
MLA	Li, Delei,et al."Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.11(2024):11.