Role of parameter errors in the spring predictability barrier for ENSO events in the Zebiak-Cane model

doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3058-3

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Role of parameter errors in the spring predictability barrier for ENSO events in the Zebiak-Cane model
	Yu Liang 1,2; Mu Mu 1; Yu, Yanshan 3; Mu, M (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
	2014-05-01
发表期刊	ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
卷号	31 期号:3 页码:647-656
文章类型	Article
摘要	The impact of both initial and parameter errors on the spring predictability barrier (SPB) is investigated using the Zebiak-Cane model (ZC model). Previous studies have shown that initial errors contribute more to the SPB than parameter errors in the ZC model. Although parameter errors themselves are less important, there is a possibility that nonlinear interactions can occur between the two types of errors, leading to larger prediction errors compared with those induced by initial errors alone. In this case, the impact of parameter errors cannot be overlooked. In the present paper, the optimal combination of these two types of errors [i.e., conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) errors] is calculated to investigate whether this optimal error combination may cause a more notable SPB phenomenon than that caused by initial errors alone. Using the CNOP approach, the CNOP errors and CNOP-I errors (optimal errors when only initial errors are considered) are calculated and then three aspects of error growth are compared: (1) the tendency of the seasonal error growth; (2) the prediction error of the sea surface temperature anomaly; and (3) the pattern of error growth. All three aspects show that the CNOP errors do not cause a more significant SPB than the CNOP-I errors. Therefore, this result suggests that we could improve the prediction of the El Nio during spring by simply focusing on reducing the initial errors in this model.
关键词	Enso Predictability Spring Predictability Barrier Initial Errors Parameter Errors Error Growth
学科领域	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI	10.1007/s00376-013-3058-3
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000334181000015
引用统计	被引频次：6[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/23961
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Mu, M (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Monash Univ, Sch Math Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia
第一作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu Liang,Mu Mu,Yu, Yanshan,et al. Role of parameter errors in the spring predictability barrier for ENSO events in the Zebiak-Cane model[J]. ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2014,31(3):647-656.
APA	Yu Liang,Mu Mu,Yu, Yanshan,&Mu, M .(2014).Role of parameter errors in the spring predictability barrier for ENSO events in the Zebiak-Cane model.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,31(3),647-656.
MLA	Yu Liang,et al."Role of parameter errors in the spring predictability barrier for ENSO events in the Zebiak-Cane model".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 31.3(2014):647-656.

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