Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting

doi:10.1093/nsr/nwv021

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting
	Mu, Mu 1; Duan, Wansuo 2; Chen, Dake 3; Yu, Weidong 4
	2015-06-01
发表期刊	NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW
卷号	2 期号:2 页码:226-236
文章类型	Review
摘要	In this paper, we emphasize the importance of accurate initial conditions in predicting high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical cyclone (TC), and Kuroshio large meander (KLM), by reviewing recent progresses toward target observations for improving the initialization of these events forecasting. Since field observations are costly and will never be dense enough to fully cover the vast space of these events, it is necessary to develop methodologies that guide the design of efficient and effective observation strategy. Of particular interest is a method called conditional non-linear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which has been shown to be very useful in determining the sensitive areas for target observations applicable to the predictions of ENSO, IOD, TC, and KLM. Further studies are needed to understand the predictability of these events under the influence of climate change, and to explore the possibility of implementing field programs of target observations. These studies are challenging but are crucially important for improving our forecast skill of the high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, and thus for disaster prevention, climate change mitigation, and sustainable socio-economic development.
关键词	Atmosphere Ocean Predictability Target Observation
DOI	10.1093/nsr/nwv021
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000356861100018
引用统计	被引频次：52[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/33089
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 2, SOED, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 4.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,Chen, Dake,et al. Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting[J]. NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,2015,2(2):226-236.
APA	Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,Chen, Dake,&Yu, Weidong.(2015).Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting.NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,2(2),226-236.
MLA	Mu, Mu,et al."Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting".NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW 2.2(2015):226-236.

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